obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means romney has gone double. people maybe read a little too much into the national polls. but even in the cases where obama was ahead by 7 points in the state before, that lead has been cut to 3 or 4. maybe you have a tie now. or romney ahead. there's a sign that obama's problems were worse just after the debate on thursday and friday and it's perking back up. we'll see in the next round show the swing states tied. then democrats really will be appropriate for them to panic a little bit. right now trepidation is the most appropriate emotion for democrats. if you see obama's lead in the swing states evaporating as well, then it really is, i think, a toss up heading into the last debates. >> nate silver, editor of the new york times 538 blog and author of "the signal and the noise." more broadly it's about the whole statistical universe and how to understand it. and be better at predicting things. nate, congratulations. thanks for your time tonight. >> thank you. >>> pop quiz. paul rya